A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
